Notes on David T. Moore's "Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis"
Table of Contents
This is some NSA manual I found in my ~/pdf/dl directory. Below are just my interpretations of what I deem to be the most important things to be extracted from that book (I have not finished reading it yet though).
1 Definitions
Thinking (reasoning) - involves objectively connecting present beliefs with evidence in order to believe something else.
Critical Thinking - a deliberate meta-cognitive (thinking about thinking) and cognitive act. Involves reflecting on the thinking process and reasoning to a conclusion at the same time.
Two goals of critical thinking:
- coming to a solution
- improving the reasoning
Intelligence:
- specialized form of knowledge (which aids people's judgement and decision-making)
- an activity (means by which data and information are collected, their relevance to an issue established, the information interpreted and disseminated to individuals and organizations who can make use of it)
- an organization (directs and manages the above activities to create the above form of knowledge as effectively as possible)
2 Introduction
Inductive reasoning - moving from the specific to the general, "that something is probably true", suggests many possible outcomes, or the range of possible outcomes. No way of knowing whether a solution is correct.
Inductive reasoning: Case -> Result -> Rule
Deductive reasoning - moving from the general to the specific, addresses questions about adversarial behavior, intentions. Certain facts indicate specific outcomes. "that something is necessarily true"
Deductive reasoning: Rule -> Case -> Result
Abductive reasoning - reveals plausible outcomes to the intelligence analyst. When an adversary's actions defy interpretations through existing paradigms, abductive reasoning generates novel means of explanation.
Rule -> Result -> Case
Critical thinking - a framework to aid these types of reasoning, to assess the Rules, the Cases, and the Results and their appropriate usage
3 What Is Critical Thinking?
Elements of Thought:
- Purpose of thinking (why examine the issue?)
- Question at issue (what is the issue at hand?)
- Evidence (what relevant data, experiences are needed for assessment?)
- Inferences & Interpretations (what can be inferred from the evidence?)
- Concepts (what theories, definitions, axioms, laws, principles, or models underline the issue?)
- Assumptions (what presuppositions are being taken for granted?)
- Implications & Consequences (what might happen? what does happen?)
- Points of view (what other perspectives need consideration?)
Standards for Critical Thinking
- Vague vs. Clear
- Innacurate vs. Accurate
- Imprecise vs. Precise
- Irrelevant vs. Relevant
- Shallow vs. Deep
- Narrow vs. Broad
- Illogical vs. Logical
- Trivial vs. Significant
- Unfair (biased, opinionated) vs. Fair
Competencies of Critical Thinkers
- Recognizing problems/questions, finding effective means of solution
- Engaging in meta-cognitive activities identifying biases, assumptions, performance as solutions are developed
- Interpreting data, appraising evidence, evaluating statements to recognize logical relationships and connections between prepositions
- Inferring warranted conclusions and generalizations from evidence
- Testing above by seeking out contradictory evidence enabling one to judge the credibility of claims
- Conveying sound, well-reasoned arguments
- Focusing on the process of reasoning with the intention of improving the process